Melbourne’s Crime Map Has Turned: What Changed in the Year to March 2026

For the first time in almost four years, recorded crime in Victoria went down. In the year to March 2026 the number of criminal incidents recorded by Victoria Police fell 1.0 percent to 468,711, and the rate of recorded offences fell 1.9 percent. That is the headline. It is also the least useful number for deciding how to protect a specific property.

The three year picture has not reset

Overall crime remains around 26 percent higher than it was three years ago. Aggravated home burglaries fell 19.9 percent over the year but sit roughly 23 percent above their level three years ago. A single year of easing does not undo the shift, and Victoria Police analysis suggests it will take time before crime returns to earlier levels.

Where the pressure moved: vehicles

The vehicle category is where the risk concentrated. More than 32,000 vehicles were stolen in the 2025 calendar year, the highest total since 2001, with the figure up 96.9 percent across three years. Police attribute a large part of that to key reprogramming and cloning technology, which they estimate is involved in 30 to 40 percent of thefts.

Theft from vehicles rose in parallel. There were 82,947 steal from a motor vehicle offences in the year to December 2025, up 9.5 percent. Number plates were the most commonly stolen item, accounting for 32,228 offences, around 39 percent of all thefts from vehicles, with Casey, Hume and Brimbank recording the highest volumes.

Where the pressure moved: retail and hospitality

Retail related offences reached 58,887 in the year to December 2025, including 41,547 recorded as steal from a retail store, up 5.8 percent. By the year to March 2026, overall criminal incidents at retail locations had eased 5.7 percent, but stalking, harassment and threatening behaviour rose 10.1 percent and there were 4,823 assault and related offences recorded at retail locations.

Where the pressure moved: apartments

Victorian apartment car parks and storage cages recorded 5,226 reported thefts in 2025, up seven percent. Density is now its own risk category, distinct from both detached housing and commercial premises.

How to read your own suburb properly

Three practical rules when looking at local government area data.

• Use rate per 100,000 rather than raw counts when comparing areas, because raw counts simply track population
• Separate residential burglary from theft from a motor vehicle, because they have different causes and different remedies
• Look at the three year trend rather than the last quarter, since quarterly movement is noisy and easily over-interpreted

The affluent inner south east continues to combine high property values with high burglary rates, which is why Stonnington, Boroondara and Bayside appear repeatedly in both wealth and offence rankings. Inner north suburbs in Yarra carry a different profile again, weighted towards apartment and vehicle related offences rather than detached dwelling entries.

What we would change based on this data

If the vehicle category is where the growth is, the security response moves outward. Detection at the driveway and the boundary matters more than another internal sensor. Plate level coverage at entry points matters more than wide overview shots. And verification matters more than recording, because the clearance rate on property crime means an unresolved recording is usually the end of the story rather than the start of one.

One number worth more than the headline

Clearance rate is the figure that should drive decisions and almost never appears in coverage. Across the past decade the large majority of recorded burglaries in Victoria have gone unresolved, and analysis of Crime Statistics Agency data suggests the burglary clearance rate has continued to slide rather than recover. Read alongside the offence counts, it produces a simple conclusion. The chance that an offence against your property is recorded is high. The chance that it is solved is not. Whatever protection exists has to operate before the offence completes, because very little happens after it.

When the next figures land

The Crime Statistics Agency publishes quarterly. Data for April to June 2026 is scheduled for release on 24 September 2026, and we will update this page against it.

Frequently asked questions

Is crime in Melbourne going down?

Statewide recorded crime fell slightly in the year to March 2026, the first decrease in almost four years, but it remains well above the level of three years ago and the movement is uneven across offence types and locations.

Which Melbourne areas have the highest burglary rates?

Rates are consistently elevated across the inner south east and inner north. The reliable way to check your own area is the Crime Statistics Agency local government area data, using rate per 100,000 rather than counts.

Why does prevention matter more than it used to?

Because clearance rates on property offences remain low. Most recorded burglaries are never resolved, which means the practical protection is stopping the entry rather than documenting it.

Find out what the data means for your address

Forever Secure provides free, no obligation risk assessments across Melbourne, confirmed within one business day. Call 1300 232 152. Licence 969-120-00S.